Thursday, December 28, 2017

How Good Has Jimmy Garoppolo Been?

Jimmy Garoppolo is 4-0 as the 49ers starting quarterback taking the team from 1-10 to 5-10 entering the 2017 season's final week. But how good has he been REALLY? I know he's 4-0 and there's something to be said for that. After all, winning IS the most important stat by which teams are measured. But is he the world beater that he's being made out to be? Let's take a closer look.

FIRST, let's consider who Garoppolo has around him. Garoppolo's top receivers in his four starts are as follows:

Marquise Goodwin (WR) - 27 receptions - 356 yards

*Goodwin has the same amount of catches in four starts with Garoppolo that he did in San Francisco's first eleven games. He stands 5'9".

Kyle Juszczyk (FB) - 13 receptions - 176 yards

*Juszczyk caught just 16 passes in San Francisco's first 11 games.

Trent Taylor (WR) - 15 receptions - 162 yards - 1 touchdown

*A rookie 5th-rounder, Taylor set career highs for receptions and yards in Garappolo's first start. He stands 5'8".

Garrett Celek (TE) - 7 receptions - 160 yards - 2 touchdowns

*Celek doubled his touchdown total thanks to Garappolo and his four TD catches on the season are a career high.

Kendrick Bourne (WR) - 7 receptions - 126 yards

*An undrafted rookie from Eastern Washington, Bourne has as many catches in the Garoppolo era as he did in six appearances prior to Garoppolo's insertion into the starting lineup.

George Kittle (TE) - 11 receptions - 124 yards - 1 touchdown

*A rookie 5th-rounder, Kittle has caught at least two passes in all of Garappolo's starts.

Louis Murphy (WR) - 3 receptions - 53 yards

*A late season add, Murphy has just 7 receptions all year.

Carlos Hyde (RB) - 8 receptions - 45 yards

*Hyde has averaged 52.8 yards on the ground and scored two rushing touchdowns during Garoppolo's four starts.

Aldrick Robinson (WR) - 4 receptions - 42 yards

*Another diminutive receiver in the San Fran stable, the 5'10" Robinson has 18 catches this season, 2 shy of his career high of 20 set last year with Atlanta.

Matt Breida (RB) - 2 receptions - 12 yards

*The undrafted rookie out of Georgia Southern has been a nice complement to Carlos Hyde and has averaged 40.5 yards per game in Garoppolo's four starts.

So it's hardly a cavalcade of All-Stars.  The rushing game hasn't been gang-busters either. Here's the breakdown:

vs Chicago - 34 carries, 110 yards - 3.2 Yards Per Carry (YPC)
vs Houston - 31 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD - 3.3 YPC
vs Tennessee - 22 carries, 51 yards - 2.3 YPC
vs Jacksonville - 35 carries, 131 yards, 3 TDs - 3.7 YPC

TOTAL - 122 carries, 384 yards, 4 TDs, 3.2 YPC

Garoppolo's averaged 312.5 yards per start, but has just four touchdowns to go against three interceptions.

How does that compare against other quarterbacks during the same stretch?

Ben Roethlisberger - 1303 yards, 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3-1
Blake Bortles - 1285 yards, 9 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 3-1
Garoppolo - 1250 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 4-0
James Winston, Tampa Bay - 1221 yards, 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 0-4
Philip Rivers, LA Chargers - 1180 yards, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 3-1
Alex Smith, Kansas City - 1169 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3-1
Matthew Stafford, Detroit - 1113 yards, 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 2-2
Joe Flacco, Baltimore - 1063 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3-1
Drew Brees, New Orleans - 1060 yards, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 3-1
Jay Cutler, Miami - 1058 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 2-2
Tom Brady, New England - 1013 yards, 4 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 3-1
Eli Manning*, New York Giants - 925 yards, 4 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
Case Keenum, Minnesota - 882 yards, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3-1
Jared Goff, LA Rams - 840 yards, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3-1
Russell Wilson, Seattle - 733 yards, 9 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 2-2
Cam Newton, Carolina - 722 yards, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3-1

*Only started 3 of 4 games

So right there you can see that he compares pretty favorably in terms of passing yards. The only two guys with more yards are Roethliseberger (numbers slightly skewed due to a 506 yard game versus Baltimore) and Bortles (who Garoppolo beat 44-33 head-to-head this week). The touchdown numbers he has are low, but he's the only guy who's 4-0 in the past four weeks, and while the 49ers may lack in 6-pointers, they've been hitting a ridiculous number of field goals (16) during their streak. Only two of Robbie Gould's 16 kicks have come from outside 50 yards, and he hit 5 field goals against Chicago, 4 against Houston, and SIX against Tennessee. So Garoppolo is definitely moving the football.

So, with all of that said, I think there's certainly something there. He has no significant weapons in receiving positions, yet he's averaging over 300 yards per game. Houston (4-11) and Chicago (5-10) aren't especially impressive wins, but San Francisco was 1-10 when this started. He's also bested Tennessee (8-7 and chasing a playoff spot) and Jacksonville (10-5 and the AFC South Division Champ). Only a handful of teams have given up more points than the 49ers defense (370): New York Giants (2-13, 378), Indianapolis Colts (3-12, 391), Houston Texans (4-11, 414), Cleveland Browns (0-15, 382) and Miami Dolphins (6-9, 371), so it's not like he's been getting a ton of help there either. It will be interesting to see what Garoppolo does against the Rams (11-4, 6th ranked passing defense @ 212 yards per game) this week given that the Rams are unlikely to be starting their best players given their postseason status. It will also be interesting to see what San Francisco can do to build around Garoppolo before 2018. If he can play this well with the team that's around him now, the possibilities if you gave him some upper-echelon offensive talent have to make you feel good if you're a 49ers fan.


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